A suprise result

The new MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse - and considerations on what is to be done. Davy Russell won the election with 8,559 votes, Jackie Ballie looked pleased. Scottish Labour will take some solace from this gain for now. The majority of 602 means that the seat remains marginal. But, given the predictions, their initial 'joy' is understandable. 

All the major parties threw everything at this by-election. The result was a turnout of 44%. Labour's vote was down by 2%. SNP down by almost 17%. And the Tories down by 11.5%. Reform, who had been talked up in the media, gained 26.1%, coming third with just over 7,000 votes. Their best result yet in Scotland. People are scunnered. 

Will we see this pattern reflected at next May's Holyrood elections? Three parties fighting it out for first place in most of the first past the post seats? The others beginning grouped somewhere behind? (Not withstanding some Liberal Democrat geographic 'anomalies').

The Tory vote looks vulnerable and is falling. Will this be the case everywhere? In Hamilton the Greens' Ann McGuinness beat the Liberal Democrats and, with an active campaign, the SSP gained 1%. Across the constituency seats where this group of parties contest in May there will stiff competition to see who gains the consolation of not being toward the bottom of the poll. 

Given the above, progressives and others will look towards the proportional list seats to gain seats in the Edinburgh parliament. For now it is the SNP that have most to think about. What were the problems with campaign management - and is Anas Sarwar's argument that the Scottish Government is disappointing gaining traction? Blaming Westminster is not enough. 

For SNP and Labour, there is a need to quickly reflect on what they can do to draw people away from voting Reform. The Greens need to show they can bring the opposite of what Reform suggests. They will require a clear message and convincing representatives on the regional list. This is the most likely route to progress in the parliament. 

Socialists outwith the main parties need to remember that there is more to politics than parties and elections. An open culture of the Left is required, that can begin to support making real differences to lives of individuals and communities. This is something we need to discuss now and get to work on.

Published 6 June 2025