Election reflections

People will have heard the headlines. Andy Burnham’s win in Makerfield was a great victory. The unusually high turnout for a by-election saw Labour gain many votes, just shy of 25,000.

Some of those voting for Burnham interestingly appear to have been motivated by a desire to remove the current Labour Prime Minister. 

Burnham beat Reform UK into second place. It was not a close result (Reform UK 15,696 votes), as much of the media had again predicted. Even if Restore Britain’s vote had been added to Reform UK’s, Burnham would have still won comfortably - although all votes for Reform UK and Restore should be considered a concern. 

Media attention has now already moved on to considering what impact Andy Burnham’s victory will have on the Labour leadership and a potential contest for the position of UK Prime Minister. 

In addition to Makerfield two other by-elections took place on June 18th. These received less attention. That lack of attention was also evident amongst voters. This was particularly the case in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry where less than a third of voters tuned out - 31.4%. This was in sharp contrast to Makerfield - 58.8%. 

Of those that voted, more than 40% supported the SNP’s Lara Bird - 9,802 votes. Here Labour were pushed into fourth place behind the Conservatives and Reform UK. 

The position was even worse in Aberdeen South. Here the turnout was 38%, and those that took part contributed to an unusual event. A Tory by-election win in Scotland. Douglas Lumsden received almost 50% support with 14,308. The specific reasons for this vote need further consideration. 

At Aberdeen South Labour were again pushed into fourth place. This time behind the SNP and Reform UK. Labour’s 1,550 votes achieving a little over 5%. The question for Labour Party members in Scotland, including those enthusiastic about Andy Burnham’s election to Westminster, need to consider why so few are voting for Labour. 

Published 19 June 2026